Black Hawk
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$304.12
468 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $273.70 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.17%
152 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
40.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 152 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 15.0% | $509 783 gems | 27.9% | 21 | 22.8 | 0.92× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife | 15.0% | $498 766 gems | 27.3% | 20 | 22.8 | 0.88× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Well-Worn)knife · gold | 15.0% | $428 658 gems | 23.5% | 28 | 22.8 | 1.23× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 15.0% | $386 594 gems | 21.2% | 16 | 22.8 | 0.70× |
| M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $2.29 3.53 gems | 0.1% | 20 | 15.2 | 1.32× |
| M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 15.0% | $1.53 2.35 gems | 0.1% | 27 | 22.8 | 1.18× |
| MP7 | Prey (Factory New)weapon · gray | 15.0% | $0.64 0.99 gems | 0.0% | 20 | 22.8 | 0.88× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $304 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 15.0%covert knife 15.0%gold 15.0%covert 15.0%mil spec 10.0%#8847ff 15.0%gray 15.0%best hit $509 (1.67x)