Black Market
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$95.73
147 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $86.15 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
125.92%
74 openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 74 openings and 14.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 120 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bayonet | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert | 20.0% | $306 471 gems | 71.0% | 30 | 24.0 | 1.25× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 20.0% | $109 168 gems | 25.3% | 31 | 24.0 | 1.29× |
| AK-47 | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $15.30 23.54 gems | 3.6% | 20 | 24.0 | 0.83× |
| Galil AR | Black Sand (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $0.25 0.39 gems | 0.1% | 20 | 24.0 | 0.83× |
| MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 20.0% | $0.12 0.18 gems | 0.0% | 19 | 24.0 | 0.79× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Bayonet | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covertGetDGN.com | Code: DGN$95.73147 gems$306471 gems3.20x
AK-47 | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil specGetDGN.com | Code: DGN$95.73147 gems$15.3023.54 gems0.16x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $95.73 | 90.00% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 20.0%extraordinary 20.0%mil spec 40.0%Rare 20.0%best hit —