Black Pearl
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$198.96
306 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $179.06 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
60.06%
300 openings, odds method
Variance
7.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (30.20% – 89.91%, 300 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 310 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl | 1 in 33 | $2,339 3,599 gems | 39.2% | 5 | 9.3 | 0.54× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 33 | $2,110 3,246 gems | 35.4% | 6 | 9.3 | 0.65× |
| ★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 10.0% | $274 422 gems | 15.3% | 32 | 31.0 | 1.03× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert knife | 10.0% | $152 234 gems | 8.5% | 28 | 31.0 | 0.90× |
| M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 30.0% | $5.54 8.53 gems | 0.9% | 105 | 93.0 | 1.13× |
| M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 44.0% | $2.89 4.44 gems | 0.7% | 134 | 136.4 | 0.98× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$199306 gems$2,3393,599 gems11.76x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearlbatapepe$199306 gems$2,3393,599 gems11.76x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$199306 gems$2,3393,599 gems11.76x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$199306 gems$2,3393,599 gems11.76x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$199306 gems$2,3393,599 gems11.76x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert knifeKing-Hassany$199306 gems$152234 gems0.76x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $199 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.0%legendary 13.0%covert knife 10.0%restricted 30.0%mil spec 44.0%best hit $2,339 (11.76x)