Black Swan
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$169.93
261 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $152.94 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.97%
728 openings, odds method
Variance
9.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 802 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 20 | $2,322 3,573 gems | 75.9% | 40 | 40.1 | 1.00× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $705 1,084 gems | 23.0% | 50 | 40.1 | 1.25× |
| Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $4.67 7.18 gems | 0.6% | 150 | 160.4 | 0.94× |
| USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · Restricted | 20.0% | $1.41 2.17 gems | 0.2% | 155 | 160.4 | 0.97× |
| M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 25.0% | $1.23 1.89 gems | 0.2% | 191 | 200.5 | 0.95× |
| Glock-18 | Winterized (Factory New)weapon · milspec | 25.0% | $0.27 0.41 gems | 0.0% | 216 | 200.5 | 1.08× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $170 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 5.0%covert 5.0%classified 20.0%Restricted 20.0%#8847ff 25.0%milspec 25.0%best hit $2,322 (13.67x)