Blackout
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$20.35
31.31 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $18.32 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.02%
374 openings, odds method
Variance
2.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 377 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 1,000 | $672 1,033 gems | 3.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $91.85 141 gems | 24.6% | 14 | 18.5 | 0.76× |
| AWP | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $43.17 66.41 gems | 35.4% | 57 | 56.5 | 1.01× |
| Desert Eagle | Night (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 15.0% | $28.02 43.1 gems | 22.9% | 70 | 56.5 | 1.24× |
| Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)weapon · red | 15.0% | $13.79 21.21 gems | 11.3% | 46 | 56.5 | 0.81× |
| USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · Restricted | 15.0% | $2.03 3.12 gems | 1.7% | 58 | 56.5 | 1.03× |
| Galil AR | Black Sand (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $0.39 0.6 gems | 0.3% | 65 | 56.5 | 1.15× |
| MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 20.0% | $0.18 0.28 gems | 0.2% | 66 | 75.4 | 0.88× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $20.35 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.1%mil spec 19.9%classified 15.0%industrial 15.0%red 15.0%Restricted 15.0%Rare 20.0%best hit $672 (33.00x)