Blank Check

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$53.40

82.15 gems

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $48.06 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.49%

1,870 openings, odds method

Variance

27.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 67

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

112 openings · below min

7 days

73.74%±25.081,656 openings

30 days

83.49%±23.601,870 openings

since tracking started

83.49%±23.601,870 openings

48.0%147.8%247.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	112	150.28%±96.4	—	odds
7d	1,656	73.74%±25.1	−1.3σ	odds
30d	1,870	83.49%±23.6	−0.5σ	odds
All	1,870	83.49%±23.6	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,900 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves \| Pillow Punchers (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 500	$4,545 6,992 gems	18.9%	4	3.8	1.05×
★ Driver Gloves \| Wave Chasergloves · rare	1 in 333	$2,744 4,222 gems	17.1%	7	5.7	1.23×
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 250	$1,460 2,246 gems	12.2%	1	7.6	0.13×
AWP \| LongDog (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 167	$754 1,160 gems	9.4%	11	11.4	0.96×
★ Karambit \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$533 820 gems	11.1%	17	19.0	0.89×
AWP \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 100	$231 355 gems	4.8%	19	19.0	1.00×
USP-S \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 67	$94.31 145 gems	2.9%	21	28.5	0.74×
USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 20	$41.98 64.59 gems	4.4%	93	95.0	0.98×
P250 \| Whiteout (P250 \| Whiteout)weapon	10.0%	$31.62 48.65 gems	6.6%	179	190.0	0.94×
Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	10.0%	$19.99 30.76 gems	4.2%	193	190.0	1.02×
Tec-9 \| Hades (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	10.0%	$11.95 18.39 gems	2.5%	198	190.0	1.04×
P250 \| Mint Kimono (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	15.0%	$7.98 12.28 gems	2.5%	257	285.0	0.90×
PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	15.0%	$6.12 9.42 gems	1.9%	308	285.0	1.08×
Galil AR \| Tuxedo (Factory New)weapon · Rare	30.0%	$2.49 3.83 gems	1.6%	592	570.0	1.04×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers (Factory New)gloves · legendary$53.4082.15 gems$4,5456,992 gems85.11x13h

★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers (Factory New)gloves · legendary$53.4082.15 gems$4,5456,992 gems85.11x1d

★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers (Factory New)gloves · legendary$53.4082.15 gems$4,5456,992 gems85.11x5d

★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers (Factory New)gloves · legendary$53.4082.15 gems$4,5456,992 gems85.11x8d

★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chasergloves · rare$53.4082.15 gems$2,7444,222 gems51.40x19h

★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chasergloves · rare$53.4082.15 gems$2,7444,222 gems51.40x3d

★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chasergloves · rare$53.4082.15 gems$2,7444,222 gems51.40x5d

★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chasergloves · rare$53.4082.15 gems$2,7444,222 gems51.40x6d

★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chasergloves · rare$53.4082.15 gems$2,7444,222 gems51.40x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Mint Kimono (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$53.4082.15 gems$7.9812.28 gems0.15x10m

PP-Bizon | High Roller (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6$53.4082.15 gems$6.129.42 gems0.11x10m

Tec-9 | Hades (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$53.4082.15 gems$11.9518.39 gems0.22x10m

Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New)weapon · Rare$53.4082.15 gems$2.493.83 gems0.05x10m

Tec-9 | Hades (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$53.4082.15 gems$11.9518.39 gems0.22x10m

Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommonFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$53.4082.15 gems$19.9930.76 gems0.37x10m

Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New)weapon · Rare$53.4082.15 gems$2.493.83 gems0.05x2h

★ Karambit | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife$53.4082.15 gems$533820 gems9.98x2h

Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New)weapon · Rare$53.4082.15 gems$2.493.83 gems0.05x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 01:59 UTC	$53.40	90.00%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.6%rare 0.3%red 5.6%covert knife 1.0%Ancient 1.0%classified 1.5%other 10.0%uncommon 10.0%industrial 10.0%consumer 15.0%#d32ee6 15.0%Rare 30.0%best hit $4,545 (85.11x)