Blazing Start
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$32.36
49.79 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $29.12 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.66%
2,025 openings, odds method
Variance
8.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,095 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 50 | $593 913 gems | 40.8% | 44 | 41.9 | 1.05× |
| MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 50 | $282 434 gems | 19.4% | 40 | 41.9 | 0.95× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 50 | $250 385 gems | 17.2% | 37 | 41.9 | 0.88× |
| AK-47 | Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $99.14 153 gems | 6.8% | 43 | 41.9 | 1.03× |
| USP-S | The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $48.38 74.43 gems | 3.3% | 34 | 41.9 | 0.81× |
| MP9 | Setting Sun (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $22.06 33.94 gems | 3.8% | 121 | 104.8 | 1.16× |
| Galil AR | Firefight (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $7.00 10.77 gems | 3.6% | 324 | 314.3 | 1.03× |
| MAG-7 | Firestarter (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 20.0% | $3.55 5.46 gems | 2.4% | 445 | 419.0 | 1.06× |
| Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 50.0% | $1.58 2.43 gems | 2.7% | 1,007 | 1047.5 | 0.96× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $32.36 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 2.0%mil spec 57.0%covert 4.0%classified 2.0%restricted 15.0%Mil Spec Grade 20.0%best hit $593 (18.34x)