Blending In
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$90.40
139 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $81.35 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.59%
166 openings, odds method
Variance
7.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 196 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 50 | $1,462 2,250 gems | 35.9% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $969 1,490 gems | 23.8% | 6 | 3.9 | 1.53× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Badlands (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary | 1 in 25 | $341 524 gems | 16.7% | 10 | 7.8 | 1.28× |
| Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6 | 1 in 25 | $154 237 gems | 7.6% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.02× |
| USP-S | Orange Anolis (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 13 | $53.95 83 gems | 5.3% | 20 | 15.7 | 1.28× |
| M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 13 | $46.37 71.34 gems | 4.6% | 14 | 15.7 | 0.89× |
| USP-S | Overgrowth (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 13 | $35.44 54.52 gems | 3.5% | 13 | 15.7 | 0.83× |
| P250 | Bengal Tiger (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 13 | $11.93 18.36 gems | 1.2% | 17 | 15.7 | 1.08× |
| MP9 | Rose Iron (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 13 | $4.04 6.21 gems | 0.4% | 14 | 15.7 | 0.89× |
| MP9 | Green Plaid (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade | 48.0% | $1.68 2.58 gems | 1.0% | 91 | 94.1 | 0.97× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryBOTAIRTXonKICK Refbot,ai 50kLBs$90.40139 gems$1,4622,250 gems16.18x
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$90.40139 gems$1,4622,250 gems16.18x
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$90.40139 gems$1,4622,250 gems16.18x
★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertLive kick/vaultycs$90.40139 gems$9691,490 gems10.72x
Latest dropsnewest first
MP9 | Rose Iron (Factory New)weapon · restrictedBOTAIRTXonKICK Refbot,ai 50kLBs$90.40139 gems$4.046.21 gems0.04x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $90.40 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 2.0%covert 2.0%Extraordinary 4.0%#d32ee6 4.0%restricted 24.0%industrial 8.0%#4b69ff 8.0%Consumer Grade 48.0%best hit $1,462 (16.18x)