Blind Vengeance

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$29.56

45.47 gems

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $26.60 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

105.64%

533 openings, odds method

Variance

14.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 44

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

24 openings · below min

7 days

103.09%±35.52431 openings

30 days

105.64%±31.94533 openings

since tracking started

105.64%±31.94533 openings

-0.5%86.5%173.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	24	22.37%±150.5	—	odds
7d	431	103.09%±35.5	+0.7σ	odds
30d	533	105.64%±31.9	+1.0σ	odds
All	533	105.64%±31.9	+1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 545 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 133	$1,074 1,653 gems	30.3%	6	4.1	1.47×
★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 133	$554 852 gems	15.6%	3	4.1	0.73×
★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 133	$447 688 gems	12.6%	6	4.1	1.47×
★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 133	$232 357 gems	6.5%	5	4.1	1.22×
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$55.46 85.33 gems	6.3%	16	16.3	0.98×
P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$30.87 47.49 gems	7.0%	28	32.7	0.86×
P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New)weapon · industrial	19.0%	$13.36 20.56 gems	9.5%	106	103.5	1.02×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	19.0%	$11.03 16.97 gems	7.9%	94	103.5	0.91×
Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New)weapon · restricted	25.0%	$3.93 6.05 gems	3.7%	131	136.2	0.96×
Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	25.0%	$0.63 0.97 gems	0.6%	150	136.3	1.10×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$29.5645.47 gems$1,0741,653 gems36.35x2d

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$29.5645.47 gems$1,0741,653 gems36.35x6d

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryARĖ$29.5645.47 gems$1,0741,653 gems36.35x7d

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryTL_HoNest$29.5645.47 gems$1,0741,653 gems36.35x8d

★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Factory New)gloves · legendary$29.5645.47 gems$554852 gems18.73x3d

★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Factory New)gloves · legendary$29.5645.47 gems$554852 gems18.73x5d

★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Factory New)gloves · legendary$29.5645.47 gems$554852 gems18.73x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)weapon · restricted$29.5645.47 gems$11.0316.97 gems0.37x3h

Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Factory New)weapon · restricted$29.5645.47 gems$3.936.05 gems0.13x3h

Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$29.5645.47 gems$0.630.97 gems0.02x3h

AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)weapon · restricted$29.5645.47 gems$11.0316.97 gems0.37x3h

P250 | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)weapon · industrialsuper tomato$29.5645.47 gems$13.3620.56 gems0.45x3h

Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Factory New)weapon · restricted$29.5645.47 gems$3.936.05 gems0.13x15h

P250 | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)weapon · industrial$29.5645.47 gems$13.3620.56 gems0.45x15h

Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Factory New)weapon · restricted$29.5645.47 gems$3.936.05 gems0.13x15h

AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)weapon · restricted$29.5645.47 gems$11.0316.97 gems0.37x15h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$29.56	89.99%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 1.5%legendary 0.8%covert knife 0.8%restricted 47.0%classified 6.0%industrial 19.0%mil spec 25.0%best hit $1,074 (36.35x)