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Blood Rain

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$16.73
25.74 gems
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $15.05 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.45%
9,432 openings, odds method
Variance
27.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 74
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
85.74%±26.731,482 openings
7 days
85.64%±11.887,502 openings
30 days
88.45%±10.599,432 openings
since tracking started
88.45%±10.599,432 openings
58.5%85.8%113.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,48285.74%±26.7−0.3σodds
7d7,50285.64%±11.9−0.7σodds
30d9,43288.45%±10.6−0.3σodds
All9,43288.45%±10.6−0.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,630 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 1,000$1,780 2,738 gems11.8%79.60.73×
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 400$1,040 1,600 gems17.3%2724.11.12×
★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 100$325 500 gems21.6%9696.31.00×
★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 87$273 420 gems20.9%103110.70.93×
Sticker | NiKo (Foil) | Krakow 2017sticker · Mythical1 in 33$62.76 96.56 gems12.5%286288.90.99×
P90 | Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 33$32.89 50.6 gems6.6%293288.91.01×
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 25$6.50 10 gems1.7%390385.21.01×
Sticker | FaZe (Foil) | 2020 RMRsticker · exotic1 in 20$5.89 9.06 gems2.0%516481.51.07×
Sticker | Ruby Stream (Lenticular)sticker · extraordinary1 in 13$3.09 4.76 gems1.5%727722.31.01×
Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)weapon · uncommon15.0%$1.22 1.88 gems1.2%1,4711444.51.02×
P250 | Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restricted20.0%$0.92 1.41 gems1.2%1,8821926.00.98×
M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff20.0%$0.85 1.31 gems1.1%1,9301926.01.00×
Sticker | rain (Holo) | Paris 2023sticker · Exotic20.0%$0.44 0.68 gems0.6%1,9021926.00.99×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$16.7325.74 gems$1,7802,738 gems106.4x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby[JH]$16.7325.74 gems$1,7802,738 gems106.4x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$16.7325.74 gems$1,7802,738 gems106.4x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby4akal$16.7325.74 gems$1,7802,738 gems106.4x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$16.7325.74 gems$1,7802,738 gems106.4x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$16.7325.74 gems$1,7802,738 gems106.4x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$16.7325.74 gems$1,7802,738 gems106.4x
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$16.7325.74 gems$1,0401,600 gems62.16x
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$16.7325.74 gems$1,0401,600 gems62.16x
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby[JH]$16.7325.74 gems$1,0401,600 gems62.16x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)weapon · uncommon$16.7325.74 gems$1.221.88 gems0.07x
M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff$16.7325.74 gems$0.851.31 gems0.05x
M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff$16.7325.74 gems$0.851.31 gems0.05x
M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff$16.7325.74 gems$0.851.31 gems0.05x
Sticker | rain (Holo) | Paris 2023sticker · Exotic$16.7325.74 gems$0.440.68 gems0.03x
P250 | Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restrictedhelix$16.7325.74 gems$0.921.41 gems0.05x
Sticker | FaZe (Foil) | 2020 RMRsticker · exotic$16.7325.74 gems$5.899.06 gems0.35x
Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)weapon · uncommon$16.7325.74 gems$1.221.88 gems0.07x
Sticker | rain (Holo) | Paris 2023sticker · Exotic$16.7325.74 gems$0.440.68 gems0.03x
Sticker | rain (Holo) | Paris 2023sticker · Exotic$16.7325.74 gems$0.440.68 gems0.03x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$16.7389.97%13
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.4%extraordinary 8.6%Mythical 7.0%classified 3.0%exotic 5.0%uncommon 15.0%restricted 20.0%#8847ff 20.0%Exotic 20.0%best hit $1,780 (106.4x)