Bloody case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$46.29
71.21 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $41.65 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.94%
291 openings, odds method
Variance
2.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 297 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $422 649 gems | 20.2% | 3 | 5.9 | 0.51× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $259 398 gems | 18.6% | 12 | 8.9 | 1.35× |
| StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 1 in 20 | $167 257 gems | 20.0% | 11 | 14.9 | 0.74× |
| AK-47 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $106 163 gems | 12.7% | 23 | 14.9 | 1.55× |
| MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $62.73 96.51 gems | 7.5% | 9 | 14.9 | 0.61× |
| Sir Bloody Darryl Royale | The Professionalsagent · Ancient | 10.0% | $37.56 57.79 gems | 9.0% | 29 | 29.7 | 0.98× |
| USP-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 10.0% | $23.32 35.87 gems | 5.6% | 34 | 29.7 | 1.14× |
| SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $12.17 18.72 gems | 4.4% | 44 | 44.5 | 0.99× |
| M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $3.72 5.73 gems | 1.3% | 39 | 44.5 | 0.88× |
| Patch | Bloodhoundpatch · Rare | 30.0% | $0.65 1 gems | 0.5% | 93 | 89.1 | 1.04× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $46.29 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 15.0%Covert 5.0%Ancient 10.0%Rare 40.0%classified 15.0%mil spec 15.0%best hit —