Blue Balls
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.17
4.88 gems
Advertised RTP
89.85%
EV $2.85 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.00%
16.8K openings, odds method
Variance
9.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 40 | $54.63 84.04 gems | 47.9% | 413 | 422.9 | 0.98× |
| USP-S | Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 40 | $21.00 32.31 gems | 18.4% | 418 | 422.9 | 0.99× |
| M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 40 | $16.58 25.5 gems | 14.5% | 424 | 422.9 | 1.00× |
| M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 40 | $16.19 24.9 gems | 14.2% | 405 | 422.9 | 0.96× |
| Sticker | Baitedsticker · High Grade | 90.0% | $0.16 0.24 gems | 4.9% | 15,258 | 15226.2 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.85%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $3.17 | 89.85% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 7.5%mil spec 2.5%High Grade 90.0%best hit —