Bomb Squad
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$11.21
17.24 gems
Advertised RTP
89.96%
EV $10.08 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.67%
2,183 openings, odds method
Variance
6.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,189 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | BOOM (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $159 245 gems | 31.6% | 41 | 43.8 | 0.94× |
| P250 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 50 | $126 194 gems | 25.0% | 51 | 43.8 | 1.16× |
| M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $47.39 72.91 gems | 18.8% | 94 | 87.6 | 1.07× |
| P90 | Fallout Warning (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 17 | $23.34 35.9 gems | 13.9% | 131 | 131.3 | 1.00× |
| XM1014 | Incinegator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 13 | $5.30 8.16 gems | 4.2% | 189 | 175.1 | 1.08× |
| MAG-7 | Core Breach (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 16.0% | $2.72 4.19 gems | 4.3% | 366 | 350.2 | 1.05× |
| SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New)weapon · blue | 31.0% | $0.58 0.89 gems | 1.8% | 683 | 678.6 | 1.01× |
| SG 553 | Danger Close (Factory New)weapon · blue | 31.0% | $0.12 0.19 gems | 0.4% | 634 | 678.6 | 0.93× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $11.21 | 89.96% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 10.0%restricted 2.0%covert 4.0%industrial 6.0%#8847ff 16.0%blue 62.0%best hit —