Boxing Match
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$704.64
1,084 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $634.17 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
64.19%
13 openings, odds method
Variance
0.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 13 openings and 3.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 10.0% | $1,237 1,903 gems | 19.5% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 10.0% | $1,070 1,646 gems | 16.9% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 10.0% | $1,009 1,552 gems | 15.9% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Giraffe (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 20 | $943 1,452 gems | 7.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Leather (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 20 | $578 889 gems | 4.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Badlands (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary | 1 in 20 | $481 740 gems | 3.8% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 25.0% | $476 733 gems | 18.8% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.23× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary | 30.0% | $278 428 gems | 13.2% | 6 | 3.9 | 1.54× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$7051,084 gems$1,0701,646 gems1.52x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$7051,084 gems$1,0701,646 gems1.52x
★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryPalm Beach Pete$7051,084 gems$476733 gems0.68x
★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinaryco***df$7051,084 gems$25.3038.92 gems0.04x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $705 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 50.0%legendary 15.0%Extraordinary 35.0%best hit $1,070 (1.52x)