Brain Fog
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.70
24.16 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $14.13 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.52%
3,913 openings, odds method
Variance
14.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 27
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,985 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Sealed Graffiti | Goofy (Cash Green)graffiti · Base GradeChonky Cat$15.7024.16 gems$0.260.4 gems0.02x
Sealed Graffiti | Goofy (Cash Green)graffiti · Base GradeChonky Cat$15.7024.16 gems$0.260.4 gems0.02x
StatTrak™ P250 | Undertow (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary$15.7024.16 gems$26.1640.24 gems1.67x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $15.70 | 89.99% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 0.0%covert 6.2%legendary 0.0%restricted 0.0%extraordinary 0.8%sunny 0.1%Covert 0.5%classified 2.2%Classified 1.0%Exotic 1.5%Legendary 7.0%mil spec 5.0%Mythical 5.0%Base Grade 70.8%best hit $526 (33.51x)