Brokie 50-50
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.11
4.78 gems
Advertised RTP
89.94%
EV $2.79 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.10%
8,418 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,531 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $9.15 14.08 gems | 32.8% | 817 | 853.1 | 0.96× |
| Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert | 20.0% | $4.52 6.96 gems | 32.4% | 1,706 | 1706.2 | 1.00× |
| FAMAS | Styx (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $4.37 6.73 gems | 31.3% | 1,749 | 1706.2 | 1.03× |
| Glock-18 | Weasel (Well-Worn)weapon · violet | 20.0% | $0.47 0.72 gems | 3.3% | 1,760 | 1706.2 | 1.03× |
| MP9 | Sand Dashed (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 30.0% | $0.02 0.03 gems | 0.2% | 2,499 | 2559.4 | 0.98× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $3.11 | 89.94% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 30.0%Covert 20.0%violet 20.0%consumer 30.0%best hit —