Budget Baller
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.25
3.46 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $2.02 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.87%
15.1K openings, odds method
Variance
5.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red | 1 in 50 | $27.94 42.99 gems | 27.6% | 297 | 309.0 | 0.96× |
| AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $20.28 31.2 gems | 20.0% | 280 | 309.0 | 0.91× |
| Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $14.11 21.7 gems | 13.9% | 308 | 309.0 | 1.00× |
| Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $11.86 18.25 gems | 11.7% | 305 | 309.0 | 0.99× |
| AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 50 | $11.78 18.13 gems | 11.6% | 304 | 309.0 | 0.98× |
| Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet | 90.0% | $0.34 0.52 gems | 15.0% | 13,958 | 13906.8 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2.25 | 89.98% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedred 2.0%covert 4.0%classified 2.0%industrial 2.0%violet 90.0%best hit —