Budget Pistol
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.02
3.1 gems
Advertised RTP
89.73%
EV $1.81 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.49%
3,388 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,437 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir Tec-9 | Toxic (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 10.0% | $5.06 7.79 gems | 28.0% | 370 | 343.7 | 1.08× |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical | 10.0% | $4.61 7.09 gems | 25.5% | 329 | 343.7 | 0.96× |
| R8 Revolver | Reboot (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $2.35 3.62 gems | 26.0% | 681 | 687.4 | 0.99× |
| Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 20 | $1.16 1.79 gems | 3.2% | 173 | 171.8 | 1.01× |
| P2000 | Obsidian (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $0.72 1.1 gems | 2.0% | 166 | 171.8 | 0.97× |
| Five-SeveN | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 25.0% | $0.62 0.95 gems | 8.5% | 857 | 859.2 | 1.00× |
| Five-SeveN | Buddy (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $0.49 0.75 gems | 6.7% | 861 | 859.3 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Tec-9 | Toxic (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$2.023.1 gems$5.067.79 gems2.51x
Souvenir Tec-9 | Toxic (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$2.023.1 gems$5.067.79 gems2.51x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical$2.023.1 gems$4.617.09 gems2.29x
Souvenir Tec-9 | Toxic (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$2.023.1 gems$5.067.79 gems2.51x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.73%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2.02 | 89.73% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedMil Spec Grade 10.0%Mythical 10.0%restricted 50.0%Industrial Grade 5.0%consumer 25.0%best hit —