Bullet Proof
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$23.48
36.12 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $21.13 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.62%
452 openings, odds method
Variance
4.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 452 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 33 | $280 431 gems | 39.8% | 10 | 13.6 | 0.74× |
| M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New)weapon · covert | 12.0% | $49.24 75.75 gems | 28.0% | 66 | 54.2 | 1.22× |
| Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $35.35 54.39 gems | 25.1% | 71 | 67.8 | 1.05× |
| MP7 | Full Stop (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $9.60 14.77 gems | 2.3% | 18 | 22.6 | 0.80× |
| Five-SeveN | Hot Shot (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 20.0% | $3.16 4.86 gems | 3.0% | 90 | 90.4 | 1.00× |
| MAC-10 | Button Masher (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 45.0% | $0.87 1.34 gems | 1.9% | 197 | 203.4 | 0.97× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Five-SeveN | Hot Shot (Factory New)weapon · industrial(GUAVA) KONKKI$23.4836.12 gems$3.164.86 gems0.13x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $23.48 | 89.98% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedAncient 3.0%covert 27.0%mil spec 5.0%industrial 20.0%#8847ff 45.0%best hit —