Price
$24.30
37.39 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $21.87 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.68%
980 openings, odds method
Variance
8.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,092 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Driver Gloves | Garden (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary | 1 in 50 | $468 720 gems | 42.8% | 23 | 21.8 | 1.05× |
| M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New)weapon · epic | 1 in 33 | $187 288 gems | 25.7% | 32 | 32.8 | 0.98× |
| M4A1-S | Party Animal (Factory New)weapon · pink | 1 in 20 | $63.71 98.02 gems | 14.6% | 42 | 54.6 | 0.77× |
| AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $30.38 46.74 gems | 6.9% | 45 | 54.6 | 0.82× |
| AK-47 | Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $16.06 24.7 gems | 3.7% | 63 | 54.6 | 1.15× |
| AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical | 10.0% | $6.29 9.67 gems | 2.9% | 120 | 109.2 | 1.10× |
| MP5-SD | Phosphor (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $2.94 4.52 gems | 1.3% | 123 | 109.2 | 1.13× |
| Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $1.77 2.72 gems | 0.8% | 110 | 109.2 | 1.01× |
| Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical | 50.0% | $0.56 0.86 gems | 1.3% | 534 | 546.0 | 0.98× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $24.30 | 89.98% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 2.0%epic 3.0%pink 5.0%covert 5.0%classified 15.0%Mythical 60.0%mil spec 10.0%best hit —