Price
$19.27
29.64 gems
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $17.33 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.10%
3,742 openings, odds method
Variance
30.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 57
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,778 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 400 | $1,743 2,682 gems | 25.1% | 9 | 9.4 | 0.95× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 200 | $786 1,210 gems | 22.7% | 26 | 18.9 | 1.38× |
| USP-S | Whiteout (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $170 262 gems | 9.8% | 26 | 37.8 | 0.69× |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $107 165 gems | 12.4% | 72 | 75.6 | 0.95× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 36 | $71.81 110 gems | 11.4% | 110 | 103.9 | 1.06× |
| Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 29 | $60.85 93.62 gems | 12.3% | 129 | 132.2 | 0.98× |
| MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $6.96 10.7 gems | 4.0% | 356 | 377.8 | 0.94× |
| CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $0.96 1.47 gems | 1.4% | 955 | 944.5 | 1.01× |
| Galil AR | Tuxedo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 25.0% | $0.54 0.83 gems | 0.8% | 956 | 944.5 | 1.01× |
| Sticker | SAW | Copenhagen 2024sticker · Rare | 30.0% | $0.07 0.11 gems | 0.1% | 1,139 | 1133.4 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Factory New)gloves · legendary$19.2729.64 gems$1,7432,682 gems90.49x
★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Factory New)gloves · legendary$19.2729.64 gems$1,7432,682 gems90.49x
★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Factory New)gloves · legendary$19.2729.64 gems$1,7432,682 gems90.49x
★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Factory New)gloves · legendary$19.2729.64 gems$1,7432,682 gems90.49x
★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Factory New)gloves · legendary$19.2729.64 gems$1,7432,682 gems90.49x
★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Factory New)gloves · legendaryHege$19.2729.64 gems$1,7432,682 gems90.49x
★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Factory New)gloves · legendary$19.2729.64 gems$1,7432,682 gems90.49x
★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Factory New)gloves · legendary$19.2729.64 gems$1,7432,682 gems90.49x
★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Factory New)gloves · legendary$19.2729.64 gems$1,7432,682 gems90.49x
★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryVytiokas$19.2729.64 gems$7861,210 gems40.82x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $19.27 | 89.97% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.3%extraordinary 0.5%classified 1.0%covert 8.3%restricted 10.0%mil spec 25.0%Mil Spec Grade 25.0%Rare 30.0%best hit $1,743 (90.49x)