Buried Treasure
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$197.73
304 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $177.96 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
64.36%
72 openings, odds method
Variance
2.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 72 openings and 7.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 84 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · epic | 10.0% | $910 1,400 gems | 51.1% | 5 | 8.4 | 0.60× |
| Sticker | Crown (Foil)sticker · exotic | 10.0% | $565 869 gems | 31.7% | 6 | 8.4 | 0.71× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 10.0% | $305 469 gems | 17.1% | 7 | 8.4 | 0.83× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $0.02 0.03 gems | 0.0% | 17 | 16.8 | 1.01× |
| MP9 | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 gems | 0.0% | 15 | 16.8 | 0.89× |
| PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer | 30.0% | <$0.01 0.01 gems | 0.0% | 34 | 25.2 | 1.35× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $198 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 10.0%exotic 10.0%covert 10.0%consumer 70.0%best hit $910 (4.60x)