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Burnout Case

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$67.88
104 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $61.09 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.86%
592 openings, odds method
Variance
4.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
63 openings · below min
7 days
99.28%±16.21582 openings
30 days
98.86%±16.08592 openings
since tracking started
98.86%±16.08592 openings
44.0%94.0%144.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h6393.89%±49.3—odds
7d58299.28%±16.2+1.1σodds
30d59298.86%±16.1+1.1σodds
All59298.86%±16.1+1.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 592 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 100$1,156 1,779 gems18.9%75.91.18×
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 100$672 1,034 gems11.0%65.91.01×
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 100$406 624 gems6.6%115.91.86×
★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Crane (Minimal Wear)gloves · Immortal1 in 100$237 365 gems3.9%95.91.52×
★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook (Field-Tested)gloves · rare1 in 100$155 238 gems2.5%15.90.17×
★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 20$113 174 gems9.3%3529.61.18×
★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary10.0%$64.66 99.48 gems10.6%5059.20.84×
★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape (Minimal Wear)gloves · #ffd70020.0%$40.13 61.74 gems13.1%130118.41.10×
★ Paracord Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd70030.0%$28.09 43.21 gems13.8%178177.61.00×
★ Shadow Daggers | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert30.0%$20.85 32.08 gems10.2%165177.60.93×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$67.88104 gems$1,1561,779 gems17.04x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyLost Panda$67.88104 gems$1,1561,779 gems17.04x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$67.88104 gems$1,1561,779 gems17.04x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$67.88104 gems$1,1561,779 gems17.04x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$67.88104 gems$1,1561,779 gems17.04x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$67.88104 gems$1,1561,779 gems17.04x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubywhite toe nail lover$67.88104 gems$1,1561,779 gems17.04x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$67.88104 gems$6721,034 gems9.90x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$67.88104 gems$6721,034 gems9.90x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black PearlDingus$67.88104 gems$6721,034 gems9.90x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$67.88104 gems$1,1561,779 gems17.04x
★ Paracord Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700$67.88104 gems$28.0943.21 gems0.41x
★ Shadow Daggers | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert$67.88104 gems$20.8532.08 gems0.31x
★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape (Minimal Wear)gloves · #ffd700$67.88104 gems$40.1361.74 gems0.59x
★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape (Minimal Wear)gloves · #ffd700$67.88104 gems$40.1361.74 gems0.59x
★ Paracord Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700Lost Panda$67.88104 gems$28.0943.21 gems0.41x
★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Crane (Minimal Wear)gloves · Immortal$67.88104 gems$237365 gems3.50x
★ Shadow Daggers | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert$67.88104 gems$20.8532.08 gems0.31x
★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape (Minimal Wear)gloves · #ffd700$67.88104 gems$40.1361.74 gems0.59x
★ Paracord Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700$67.88104 gems$28.0943.21 gems0.41x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$67.8890.00%10
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 33.0%Immortal 1.0%rare 1.0%extraordinary 15.0%#ffd700 50.0%best hit $1,156 (17.04x)