Butter Knife
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$165.14
254 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $148.62 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.25%
185 openings, odds method
Variance
0.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
27.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 231 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 33 | $416 640 gems | 8.4% | 6 | 6.9 | 0.87× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $386 594 gems | 7.8% | 6 | 6.9 | 0.87× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 20 | $304 467 gems | 10.2% | 8 | 11.6 | 0.69× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 17 | $262 403 gems | 10.6% | 8 | 13.9 | 0.58× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Vanillaknife · Immortal | 10.0% | $210 323 gems | 14.1% | 26 | 23.1 | 1.13× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 15.0% | $126 194 gems | 12.7% | 47 | 34.6 | 1.36× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700 | 15.0% | $95.22 146 gems | 9.6% | 31 | 34.6 | 0.89× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife | 21.0% | $92.20 142 gems | 13.0% | 40 | 48.5 | 0.82× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 22.0% | $91.16 140 gems | 13.5% | 59 | 50.8 | 1.16× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Flip Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert knifetrickytrash$165254 gems$92.20142 gems0.56x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $165 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#ffd700 18.0%covert 46.0%covert knife 26.0%Immortal 10.0%best hit —