Camo Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$36.17
55.64 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $32.55 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
73.11%
619 openings, odds method
Variance
5.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 625 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $379 582 gems | 58.2% | 21 | 31.2 | 0.67× |
| AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $77.29 119 gems | 11.9% | 39 | 31.2 | 1.25× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 10.0% | $66.11 102 gems | 20.3% | 65 | 62.5 | 1.04× |
| M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $24.62 37.87 gems | 7.6% | 45 | 62.5 | 0.72× |
| M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $2.37 3.65 gems | 0.7% | 71 | 62.5 | 1.14× |
| Nova | Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 15.0% | $1.92 2.96 gems | 0.9% | 92 | 93.7 | 0.98× |
| USP-S | Forest Leaves (Well-Worn)weapon · #87c7ff | 15.0% | $0.59 0.9 gems | 0.3% | 92 | 93.7 | 0.98× |
| AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $0.42 0.64 gems | 0.2% | 97 | 93.7 | 1.03× |
| MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 15.0% | $0.03 0.04 gems | 0.0% | 103 | 93.8 | 1.10× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$36.1755.64 gems$66.11102 gems1.83x
★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$36.1755.64 gems$66.11102 gems1.83x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $36.17 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%extraordinary 10.0%industrial 20.0%consumer 30.0%#87c7ff 15.0%restricted 15.0%best hit —