Candy Carnage
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$39.08
60.12 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $35.17 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.76%
575 openings, odds method
Variance
6.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 579 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 400 | $1,536 2,363 gems | 10.9% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 400 | $809 1,245 gems | 5.8% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.38× |
| Souvenir Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec | 1 in 200 | $337 518 gems | 4.8% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 50 | $216 332 gems | 12.3% | 13 | 11.6 | 1.12× |
| AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $176 271 gems | 20.0% | 23 | 23.2 | 0.99× |
| USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 14 | $119 184 gems | 23.8% | 49 | 40.5 | 1.21× |
| MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $30.82 47.42 gems | 8.8% | 50 | 57.9 | 0.86× |
| AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · covert | 16.0% | $22.66 34.86 gems | 10.3% | 83 | 92.6 | 0.90× |
| M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6 | 20.0% | $3.22 4.95 gems | 1.8% | 114 | 115.8 | 0.98× |
| MP9 | Goo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical | 40.0% | $1.38 2.12 gems | 1.6% | 242 | 231.6 | 1.04× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Factory New)gloves · legendaryBriggsy$39.0860.12 gems$8091,245 gems20.71x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $39.08 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 20.3%legendary 0.3%mil spec 0.5%sunny 2.0%classified 17.0%#d32ee6 20.0%Mythical 40.0%best hit $1,536 (39.30x)