Candy Dreams
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.44
11.45 gems
Advertised RTP
89.94%
EV $6.69 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.77%
3,275 openings, odds method
Variance
3.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,313 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Battle-Scarred)gloves · gold | 1 in 50 | $90.68 140 gems | 27.1% | 56 | 66.3 | 0.85× |
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Jawbreaker (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $41.44 63.75 gems | 12.4% | 71 | 66.3 | 1.07× |
| Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $27.28 41.97 gems | 8.2% | 63 | 66.3 | 0.95× |
| M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 14.0% | $12.12 18.64 gems | 25.3% | 458 | 463.8 | 0.99× |
| UMP-45 | Caramel (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 15.0% | $5.47 8.41 gems | 12.2% | 508 | 496.9 | 1.02× |
| SG 553 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 15.0% | $4.12 6.34 gems | 9.2% | 492 | 496.9 | 0.99× |
| M4A4 | In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red | 15.0% | $1.81 2.78 gems | 4.0% | 501 | 496.9 | 1.01× |
| MP9 | Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink | 15.0% | $0.62 0.95 gems | 1.4% | 516 | 496.9 | 1.04× |
| Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 20.0% | $0.04 0.06 gems | 0.1% | 648 | 662.6 | 0.98× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $7.44 | 89.94% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 2.0%classified 18.0%consumer 15.0%industrial 35.0%red 15.0%pink 15.0%best hit —