Capsule Collector
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$20.87
32.11 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $18.78 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.59%
2,133 openings, odds method
Variance
85.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 28
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,149 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMS Katowice 2014 Legendsother · base | 1 in 10,000 | $18.4K 28,249 gems | 9.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo-Foil)other · base | 1 in 100 | $480 738 gems | 25.5% | 19 | 21.5 | 0.88× |
| DreamHack 2014 Legends (Holo-Foil)other · #B0C3D9 | 1 in 40 | $168 259 gems | 22.4% | 52 | 53.7 | 0.97× |
| Boston 2018 Legends (Holo-Foil)other · Base Grade | 1 in 40 | $139 214 gems | 18.5% | 53 | 53.7 | 0.99× |
| Boston 2018 Minor Challengers Autograph Capsulecontainer · base | 1 in 33 | $136 210 gems | 21.7% | 70 | 64.3 | 1.09× |
| Poorly Drawn Capsulecontainer | 10.0% | $0.51 0.79 gems | 0.3% | 215 | 214.9 | 1.00× |
| Enfu Sticker Capsulecontainer | 10.0% | $0.51 0.78 gems | 0.3% | 213 | 214.9 | 0.99× |
| CS20 Sticker Capsulecontainer | 20.0% | $0.47 0.72 gems | 0.5% | 413 | 429.8 | 0.96× |
| Warhammer 40,000 Traitor Astartes Sticker Capsulecontainer · common | 21.0% | $0.42 0.65 gems | 0.5% | 464 | 451.3 | 1.03× |
| Sticker Capsulecontainer · Base Grade | 30.0% | $0.31 0.48 gems | 0.5% | 650 | 644.7 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Warhammer 40,000 Traitor Astartes Sticker Capsulecontainer · commonhelix$20.8732.11 gems$0.420.65 gems0.02x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $20.87 | 89.98% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedbase 4.0%#B0C3D9 2.5%Base Grade 32.5%other 40.0%common 21.0%best hit —