Carbine Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$53.63
82.51 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $48.26 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
104.00%
354 openings, odds method
Variance
5.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 354 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Daybreak (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 50 | $746 1,147 gems | 30.9% | 11 | 7.1 | 1.55× |
| Souvenir M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon | 1 in 50 | $398 612 gems | 16.5% | 8 | 7.1 | 1.13× |
| M4A4 | The Coalition (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 50 | $306 471 gems | 12.7% | 7 | 7.1 | 0.99× |
| M4A1-S | Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic | 1 in 50 | $183 282 gems | 7.6% | 6 | 7.1 | 0.85× |
| M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $81.25 125 gems | 3.4% | 8 | 7.1 | 1.13× |
| M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $37.80 58.15 gems | 7.8% | 25 | 35.4 | 0.71× |
| M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $29.95 46.08 gems | 6.2% | 32 | 35.4 | 0.90× |
| M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $22.70 34.93 gems | 4.7% | 29 | 35.4 | 0.82× |
| M4A4 | Zirka (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 20.0% | $14.72 22.64 gems | 6.1% | 84 | 70.8 | 1.19× |
| M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $7.42 11.42 gems | 3.1% | 65 | 70.8 | 0.92× |
| M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $2.55 3.92 gems | 1.1% | 79 | 70.8 | 1.12× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $53.63 | 89.99% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 42.0%other 2.0%Ancient 2.0%epic 2.0%covert 12.0%violet 20.0%classified 20.0%best hit $746 (13.90x)