Carrot Cashout
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$28.31
43.55 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $25.48 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.81%
390 openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 404 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | The Oligarch (Factory New)weapon · red | 1 in 50 | $273 419 gems | 21.4% | 8 | 8.1 | 0.99× |
| M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $122 188 gems | 14.4% | 14 | 12.1 | 1.16× |
| M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $83.18 128 gems | 16.3% | 25 | 20.2 | 1.24× |
| AWP | Crakow! (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare | 1 in 20 | $62.31 95.86 gems | 12.2% | 19 | 20.2 | 0.94× |
| SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $56.23 86.51 gems | 11.0% | 17 | 20.2 | 0.84× |
| AUG | Lil' Pig (Well-Worn)weapon · pink | 1 in 20 | $35.34 54.37 gems | 6.9% | 17 | 20.2 | 0.84× |
| M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $14.24 21.9 gems | 2.8% | 22 | 20.2 | 1.09× |
| FAMAS | Pulse (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical | 30.0% | $7.79 11.98 gems | 9.2% | 119 | 121.2 | 0.98× |
| Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 40.0% | $3.65 5.61 gems | 5.7% | 163 | 161.6 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
FAMAS | Pulse (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythicalthegamblingbandits.com$28.3143.55 gems$7.7911.98 gems0.28x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $28.31 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedred 2.0%covert 8.0%rare 5.0%classified 10.0%pink 5.0%Mythical 30.0%#4b69ff 40.0%best hit —