Cartoon
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$401.67
618 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $361.50 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
101.76%
30 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
35.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 30 openings and 10.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 35.0% | $1,007 1,549 gems | 97.5% | 16 | 13.3 | 1.20× |
| M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $130 200 gems | 1.8% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× |
| M4A1-S | Player Two (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $48.21 74.17 gems | 0.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $17.97 27.65 gems | 0.1% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.75× |
| StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 1 in 33 | $8.22 12.65 gems | 0.1% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| MP9 | Mount Fuji (Factory New)weapon · violet | 1 in 17 | $2.75 4.23 gems | 0.0% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.32× |
| Galil AR | Kami (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 17 | $1.22 1.88 gems | 0.0% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| Sticker | Kawaii Killer Terroriststicker · Rare | 1 in 11 | $0.45 0.69 gems | 0.0% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.46× |
| Sticker | Clutchman (Holo)sticker · remarkable | 10.0% | $0.20 0.31 gems | 0.0% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.53× |
| Sticker | Noodlessticker · Rare | 20.0% | $0.03 0.05 gems | 0.0% | 8 | 7.6 | 1.05× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertEnergetic Ferret$402618 gems$1,0071,549 gems2.51x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $402 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 46.0%Covert 3.0%violet 6.0%#4b69ff 6.0%Rare 29.0%remarkable 10.0%best hit $1,007 (2.51x)