Case Roulette
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.60
13.23 gems
Advertised RTP
89.96%
EV $7.74 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.02%
3,574 openings, odds method
Variance
3.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,594 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CS:GO Weapon Casecontainer · Base Grade | 16.7% | $44.71 68.78 gems | 96.3% | 613 | 599.1 | 1.02× |
| Spectrum 2 Casecontainer · Base Grade | 16.7% | $0.99 1.52 gems | 2.1% | 589 | 599.1 | 0.98× |
| Kilowatt Casecontainer · Case | 16.7% | $0.30 0.46 gems | 0.6% | 627 | 599.1 | 1.05× |
| Revolution Casecontainer · Base Grade | 16.7% | $0.21 0.32 gems | 0.4% | 617 | 599.1 | 1.03× |
| Snakebite Casecontainer · Base Grade | 16.7% | $0.12 0.19 gems | 0.3% | 568 | 598.8 | 0.95× |
| Recoil Casecontainer · Base Grade | 16.7% | $0.08 0.13 gems | 0.2% | 580 | 598.8 | 0.97× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $8.60 | 89.96% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedBase Grade 83.3%Case 16.7%best hit —