Cashout Button
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$405.88
624 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $365.28 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
56.50%
218 openings, odds method
Variance
7.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 218 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $7,479 11,506 gems | 40.9% | 1 | 4.4 | 0.23× |
| ★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $1,780 2,739 gems | 14.6% | 5 | 6.5 | 0.76× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 25 | $1,345 2,070 gems | 14.7% | 7 | 8.7 | 0.80× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 20 | $879 1,352 gems | 12.0% | 9 | 10.9 | 0.83× |
| AK-47 | Hydroponic (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 1 in 13 | $419 644 gems | 9.2% | 23 | 17.4 | 1.32× |
| M4A1-S | Master Piece (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $148 227 gems | 2.0% | 9 | 10.9 | 0.83× |
| Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $88.79 137 gems | 2.4% | 24 | 21.8 | 1.10× |
| SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert | 26.0% | $37.76 58.09 gems | 2.7% | 54 | 56.7 | 0.95× |
| R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert | 37.0% | $13.42 20.64 gems | 1.4% | 86 | 80.7 | 1.07× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covertLive @ Kick/JaekCreates$406624 gems$7,47911,506 gems18.43x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $406 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 82.0%gold 5.0%classified 13.0%best hit $7,479 (18.43x)