Castle
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$187.32
288 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $168.59 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.91%
426 openings, odds method
Variance
6.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 452 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $1,614 2,483 gems | 95.7% | 45 | 45.2 | 1.00× |
| Dual Berettas | Duelist (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $40.89 62.9 gems | 3.6% | 66 | 67.8 | 0.97× |
| Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $3.71 5.71 gems | 0.3% | 77 | 67.8 | 1.14× |
| M4A4 | The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Covert | 15.0% | $3.06 4.71 gems | 0.3% | 54 | 67.8 | 0.80× |
| Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Factory New)weapon · violet | 15.0% | $0.16 0.24 gems | 0.0% | 60 | 67.8 | 0.88× |
| Sticker | Dragon's Keepsticker · Rare | 30.0% | $0.10 0.16 gems | 0.0% | 150 | 135.6 | 1.11× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $187 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 10.0%restricted 30.0%Covert 15.0%violet 15.0%Rare 30.0%best hit $1,614 (8.62x)