Catalyst Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$74.44
115 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $67.00 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
107.58%
216 openings, odds method
Variance
3.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 216 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 40 | $725 1,115 gems | 27.0% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.11× |
| AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $464 714 gems | 17.3% | 8 | 5.4 | 1.48× |
| AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $225 346 gems | 16.8% | 15 | 10.8 | 1.39× |
| M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $111 170 gems | 16.5% | 25 | 21.6 | 1.16× |
| M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare | 10.0% | $59.48 91.51 gems | 8.9% | 21 | 21.6 | 0.97× |
| Galil AR | Dusk Ruins (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 10.0% | $39.57 60.88 gems | 5.9% | 19 | 21.6 | 0.88× |
| AUG | Sand Storm (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $22.46 34.56 gems | 3.4% | 24 | 21.6 | 1.11× |
| MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)weapon · uncommon | 10.0% | $12.98 19.97 gems | 1.9% | 22 | 21.6 | 1.02× |
| MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $5.41 8.33 gems | 1.6% | 33 | 43.2 | 0.76× |
| Glock-18 | Shinobu (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink | 20.0% | $2.24 3.45 gems | 0.7% | 43 | 43.2 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)weapon · rareFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$74.44115 gems$59.4891.51 gems0.80x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $74.44 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 2.5%covert 17.5%rare 10.0%Mil Spec Grade 10.0%restricted 30.0%uncommon 10.0%pink 20.0%best hit $725 (9.74x)