Celebration
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$89.94
138 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $80.94 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.00%
321 openings, odds method
Variance
8.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 327 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $1,170 1,800 gems | 72.3% | 16 | 16.4 | 0.98× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare | 1 in 20 | $205 316 gems | 12.7% | 12 | 16.4 | 0.73× |
| StatTrak™ USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $113 173 gems | 7.0% | 21 | 16.4 | 1.28× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 1 in 20 | $57.86 89.01 gems | 3.6% | 18 | 16.4 | 1.10× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 20 | $19.61 30.17 gems | 1.2% | 22 | 16.4 | 1.35× |
| StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $13.37 20.57 gems | 0.8% | 22 | 16.4 | 1.35× |
| M4A4 | Spider Lily (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $8.01 12.33 gems | 1.0% | 33 | 32.7 | 1.01× |
| CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 20.0% | $4.22 6.49 gems | 1.0% | 56 | 65.4 | 0.86× |
| MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 40.0% | $0.92 1.41 gems | 0.5% | 127 | 130.8 | 0.97× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedmiddlemasluke99$89.94138 gems$1,1701,800 gems13.01x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert$89.94138 gems$57.8689.01 gems0.64x
StatTrak™ USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$89.94138 gems$113173 gems1.25x
MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$89.94138 gems$0.921.41 gems0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $89.94 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 50.0%rare 5.0%covert 5.0%Covert 5.0%Classified 5.0%restricted 10.0%Legendary 20.0%best hit $1,170 (13.01x)