Celestial Vault
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$98.76
152 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $88.88 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.81%
352 openings, odds method
Variance
4.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 352 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2 | 1 in 40 | $1,198 1,843 gems | 33.7% | 13 | 8.8 | 1.48× |
| ★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 40 | $658 1,012 gems | 18.5% | 8 | 8.8 | 0.91× |
| AK-47 | Aphrodite (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b | 1 in 20 | $369 567 gems | 20.7% | 15 | 17.6 | 0.85× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $179 275 gems | 10.1% | 16 | 17.6 | 0.91× |
| AWP | Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $71.67 110 gems | 8.1% | 38 | 35.2 | 1.08× |
| USP-S | The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $35.95 55.3 gems | 6.1% | 62 | 52.8 | 1.17× |
| Glock-18 | Ramese's Reach (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet | 15.0% | $13.99 21.53 gems | 2.4% | 51 | 52.8 | 0.97× |
| Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink | 20.0% | $1.65 2.54 gems | 0.4% | 68 | 70.4 | 0.97× |
| P2000 | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff | 25.0% | $0.51 0.79 gems | 0.1% | 81 | 88.0 | 0.92× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$98.76152 gems$1,1981,843 gems12.13x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$98.76152 gems$1,1981,843 gems12.13x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2PeepE$98.76152 gems$1,1981,843 gems12.13x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$98.76152 gems$1,1981,843 gems12.13x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$98.76152 gems$1,1981,843 gems12.13x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$98.76152 gems$1,1981,843 gems12.13x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$98.76152 gems$1,1981,843 gems12.13x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$98.76152 gems$1,1981,843 gems12.13x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$98.76152 gems$1,1981,843 gems12.13x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$98.76152 gems$1,1981,843 gems12.13x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $98.76 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 35.0%#eb4b4b 5.0%violet 15.0%pink 20.0%#8847ff 25.0%best hit $1,198 (12.13x)