Certified Banger
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$10.41
16.01 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $9.37 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.30%
845 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 855 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $34.12 52.49 gems | 54.6% | 122 | 128.2 | 0.95× |
| StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b | 15.0% | $19.19 29.52 gems | 30.7% | 121 | 128.2 | 0.94× |
| MAG-7 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff | 15.0% | $6.19 9.52 gems | 9.9% | 137 | 128.2 | 1.07× |
| Nova | Clear Polymer (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet | 15.0% | $1.90 2.92 gems | 3.0% | 120 | 128.2 | 0.94× |
| CZ75-Auto | Silver (Factory New)weapon · light blue | 15.0% | $0.71 1.09 gems | 1.1% | 116 | 128.2 | 0.90× |
| Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $0.20 0.31 gems | 0.5% | 239 | 213.8 | 1.12× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b$10.4116.01 gems$19.1929.52 gems1.84x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b$10.4116.01 gems$19.1929.52 gems1.84x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4bTTHD$10.4116.01 gems$19.1929.52 gems1.84x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $10.41 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 15.0%#eb4b4b 15.0%#87c7ff 15.0%violet 15.0%light blue 15.0%mil spec 25.0%best hit —