Charming
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.21
8.01 gems
Advertised RTP
89.96%
EV $4.68 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.89%
1,864 openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,890 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charm | Baby Karat Tcharm · #eb4b4b | 1 in 80 | $48.50 74.61 gems | 12.9% | 19 | 23.6 | 0.80× |
| Charm | Hot Howlcharm · Ancient | 1 in 67 | $34.64 53.3 gems | 11.1% | 25 | 28.3 | 0.88× |
| Charm | Semi-Preciouscharm · rare | 1 in 67 | $34.64 53.3 gems | 11.1% | 31 | 28.3 | 1.09× |
| Charm | Hot Wurstcharm · #eb4b4b | 1 in 40 | $23.79 36.6 gems | 12.7% | 56 | 47.2 | 1.19× |
| Charm | Diamond Dogcharm · rare | 1 in 33 | $14.06 21.63 gems | 9.0% | 58 | 56.7 | 1.02× |
| Charm | Titeenium AWPcharm · Legendary | 1 in 20 | $10.04 15.45 gems | 10.7% | 100 | 94.5 | 1.06× |
| Charm | Lil' Monstercharm · uncommon | 1 in 20 | $6.96 10.7 gems | 7.4% | 73 | 94.5 | 0.77× |
| Charm | Lil' Squirtcharm · #d32ce6 | 1 in 13 | $4.60 7.08 gems | 7.4% | 126 | 141.7 | 0.89× |
| Charm | Glamour Shotcharm · uncommon | 10.0% | $2.63 4.05 gems | 5.6% | 179 | 189.0 | 0.95× |
| Charm | POP Artcharm · #8847ff | 10.0% | $2.07 3.18 gems | 4.4% | 205 | 189.0 | 1.08× |
| Charm | Disco MACcharm · uncommon | 10.0% | $1.81 2.78 gems | 3.9% | 199 | 189.0 | 1.05× |
| Charm | Baby's AKcharm · Rare | 15.8% | $0.70 1.07 gems | 2.3% | 290 | 297.7 | 0.97× |
| Charm | Lil' Cap Guncharm · Rare | 27.0% | $0.25 0.38 gems | 1.4% | 529 | 510.3 | 1.04× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $5.21 | 89.96% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#eb4b4b 3.8%Ancient 1.5%rare 4.5%Legendary 5.0%uncommon 25.0%#d32ce6 7.5%#8847ff 10.0%Rare 42.8%best hit —