Cheap Coinflip
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.72
5.73 gems
Advertised RTP
89.86%
EV $3.35 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.25%
2,779 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,865 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAC-10 | Stalker (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $7.42 11.42 gems | 22.2% | 307 | 286.5 | 1.07× |
| USP-S | The Traitor (Well-Worn)weapon · red | 10.0% | $6.99 10.75 gems | 20.9% | 262 | 286.5 | 0.91× |
| AWP | Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink | 10.0% | $6.50 10 gems | 19.4% | 280 | 286.5 | 0.98× |
| Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red | 10.0% | $6.37 9.8 gems | 19.0% | 294 | 286.5 | 1.03× |
| SSG 08 | Big Iron (Well-Worn)weapon · pink | 10.0% | $5.86 9.02 gems | 17.5% | 311 | 286.5 | 1.09× |
| Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9 | 10.0% | $0.09 0.14 gems | 0.3% | 296 | 286.5 | 1.03× |
| Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight | 10.0% | $0.08 0.12 gems | 0.2% | 294 | 286.5 | 1.03× |
| M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $0.07 0.11 gems | 0.2% | 266 | 286.5 | 0.93× |
| USP-S | 27 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue | 10.0% | $0.06 0.09 gems | 0.2% | 305 | 286.5 | 1.06× |
| USP-S | PC-GRN (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 10.0% | $0.03 0.04 gems | 0.1% | 250 | 286.5 | 0.87× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.86%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $3.72 | 89.86% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%red 20.0%pink 20.0%#5e98d9 10.0%blueLight 10.0%industrial 10.0%blue 10.0%#4b69ff 10.0%best hit —