Cheap Skate
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.08
1.66 gems
Advertised RTP
89.89%
EV $0.97 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.54%
24.3K openings, odds method
Variance
15.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 19
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24.8K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Gut Knife | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · gold | 1 in 500 | $78.53 121 gems | 16.2% | 45 | 49.6 | 0.91× |
| AWP | Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red | 1 in 100 | $15.20 23.39 gems | 15.7% | 241 | 248.2 | 0.97× |
| P250 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon | 1 in 100 | $12.23 18.82 gems | 12.6% | 266 | 248.2 | 1.07× |
| MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 33 | $6.31 9.71 gems | 19.5% | 703 | 744.7 | 0.94× |
| Galil AR | Eco (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 21 | $3.84 5.91 gems | 19.0% | 1,164 | 1191.6 | 0.98× |
| AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red | 1 in 20 | $2.82 4.34 gems | 14.5% | 1,216 | 1241.2 | 0.98× |
| Sticker | Mastermindsticker · High Grade | 15.0% | $0.07 0.1 gems | 1.0% | 3,778 | 3723.6 | 1.01× |
| Sticker | XDsticker · #4b69ff | 25.0% | $0.03 0.05 gems | 0.8% | 6,289 | 6206.0 | 1.01× |
| Sticker | Lefty (CT)sticker · #4b69ff | 45.0% | $0.01 0.02 gems | 0.6% | 11,122 | 11170.8 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1.08 | 89.89% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 0.2%red 6.0%other 1.0%restricted 3.0%classified 4.8%High Grade 15.0%#4b69ff 70.0%best hit $78.53 (72.78x)