Cheese's Curse

A case on Clash.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$62.07
95.49 gems
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
90.82%
387 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
228 openings · below min
7 days
326 openings · below min
30 days
387 openings · below min
since tracking started
387 openings · below min
59.0%92.2%125.5%

Small sample. 387 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h22892.18%±32.5—sample
7d32691.11%±29.4—sample
30d38790.82%±26.3—sample
All38790.82%±26.3—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogClash.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$62.0795.49 gems$1,3362,055 gems21.52x
AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$62.0795.49 gems$1,3362,055 gems21.52x
AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$62.0795.49 gems$1,3362,055 gems21.52x
M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b$62.0795.49 gems$1,0431,604 gems16.80x
M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b$62.0795.49 gems$1,0431,604 gems16.80x
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$62.0795.49 gems$7771,195 gems12.51x
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$62.0795.49 gems$7771,195 gems12.51x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny$62.0795.49 gems$570877 gems9.18x

Latest dropsnewest first

Sticker | Blue Gem (Glitter)sticker · remarkable$62.0795.49 gems$3.745.75 gems0.06x
Sticker | Blue Gem (Glitter)sticker · remarkable$62.0795.49 gems$3.745.75 gems0.06x
Sticker | Blue Gem (Glitter)sticker · remarkable$62.0795.49 gems$3.745.75 gems0.06x
Sticker | Blue Gem (Glitter)sticker · remarkable$62.0795.49 gems$3.745.75 gems0.06x
AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$62.0795.49 gems$64.6699.48 gems1.04x
AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$62.0795.49 gems$64.6699.48 gems1.04x
Sticker | Blue Gem (Glitter)sticker · remarkable$62.0795.49 gems$3.745.75 gems0.06x
Sticker | Blue Gem (Glitter)sticker · remarkable$62.0795.49 gems$3.745.75 gems0.06x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $1,336 (21.52x)