Christmas Lights
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$27.81
42.79 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $25.03 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.58%
726 openings, odds method
Variance
7.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 734 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $556 855 gems | 22.2% | 11 | 7.3 | 1.50× |
| M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $364 560 gems | 14.5% | 10 | 7.3 | 1.36× |
| M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $257 395 gems | 20.5% | 13 | 14.7 | 0.89× |
| M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New)weapon · epic | 1 in 50 | $140 216 gems | 11.2% | 9 | 14.7 | 0.61× |
| M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $87.52 135 gems | 14.0% | 30 | 29.4 | 1.02× |
| M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 20 | $35.56 54.7 gems | 7.1% | 41 | 36.7 | 1.12× |
| M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $15.29 23.52 gems | 6.1% | 59 | 73.4 | 0.80× |
| M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $5.92 9.1 gems | 2.4% | 70 | 73.4 | 0.95× |
| M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $1.37 2.11 gems | 0.5% | 91 | 73.4 | 1.24× |
| M4A1-S | Nitro (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 55.0% | $0.63 0.97 gems | 1.4% | 400 | 403.7 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $27.81 | 89.98% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 12.0%covert 16.0%epic 2.0%industrial 5.0%restricted 65.0%best hit $556 (19.98x)