Christmas Loadout
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$165.25
254 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $148.72 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
48.94%
477 openings, odds method
Variance
13.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (15.54% – 82.35%, 477 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 483 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Gungnir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $5,849 8,999 gems | 39.3% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $1,284 1,975 gems | 17.3% | 10 | 9.7 | 1.04× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 50 | $900 1,385 gems | 12.1% | 5 | 9.7 | 0.52× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 50 | $596 917 gems | 8.0% | 7 | 9.7 | 0.72× |
| Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $131 201 gems | 4.4% | 25 | 24.2 | 1.04× |
| MAG-7 | Counter Terrace (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $87.62 135 gems | 2.9% | 22 | 24.2 | 0.91× |
| M4A1-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red | 15.0% | $48.56 74.71 gems | 4.9% | 81 | 72.5 | 1.12× |
| MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $36.73 56.5 gems | 6.2% | 131 | 120.8 | 1.08× |
| Dual Berettas | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 43.0% | $16.87 25.95 gems | 4.9% | 202 | 207.7 | 0.97× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New)weapon · classifiedLive @ Kick/JaekCreates$165254 gems$1,2841,975 gems7.77x
Latest dropsnewest first
Dual Berettas | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil specLive @ Kick/JaekCreates$165254 gems$16.8725.95 gems0.10x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $165 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%classified 2.0%extraordinary 2.0%gold 2.0%restricted 5.0%mil spec 73.0%red 15.0%best hit $1,284 (7.77x)