Christmas Miracles
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$12.47
19.19 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $11.23 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.40%
5,978 openings, odds method
Variance
33.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 67
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,035 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 200 | $963 1,482 gems | 42.9% | 27 | 30.2 | 0.89× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $211 324 gems | 18.8% | 62 | 60.3 | 1.03× |
| Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $144 221 gems | 12.8% | 59 | 60.3 | 0.98× |
| USP-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red | 1 in 67 | $29.08 44.74 gems | 3.9% | 80 | 90.5 | 0.88× |
| AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $19.49 29.98 gems | 5.2% | 159 | 181.0 | 0.88× |
| AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 1 in 33 | $11.69 17.98 gems | 3.1% | 166 | 181.0 | 0.92× |
| SG 553 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 40.0% | $1.95 3 gems | 6.9% | 2,401 | 2414.0 | 0.99× |
| Sawed-Off | Jungle Thicket (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 50.0% | $1.43 2.2 gems | 6.4% | 3,081 | 3017.5 | 1.02× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classifiedSINGH KARANVIR$12.4719.19 gems$9631,482 gems77.23x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $12.47 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 3.5%covert 1.0%restricted 1.0%red 1.5%Rare 3.0%industrial 40.0%consumer 50.0%best hit $963 (77.23x)