Chroma Case
A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.38
3.66 gems
Advertised RTP
89.85%
EV $2.14 from 44 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.19%
5,757 openings, odds method
Variance
97.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 114
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,912 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Glock-18 | Catacombs (Factory New)weapon · Mil Specsorry i'm mexican$2.383.66 gems$0.300.46 gems0.13x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.85%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $2.38 | 89.85% | 44 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.0%covert 0.8%sunny 0.0%other 0.0%classified 3.2%restricted 16.0%mil spec 48.0%Mil Spec 16.0%Rare 16.0%best hit $839 (352.7x)