Clarity
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$58.82
90.49 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $52.93 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.44%
479 openings, odds method
Variance
4.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 479 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Emerald) ★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)other | 1 in 100 | $756 1,163 gems | 14.3% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.63× |
| Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted | 1 in 50 | $545 839 gems | 20.6% | 12 | 9.6 | 1.25× |
| Sticker | 100 Thieves (Foil) | Boston 2018sticker · exotic | 1 in 33 | $317 488 gems | 18.0% | 16 | 14.4 | 1.11× |
| StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 25 | $228 351 gems | 17.2% | 18 | 19.2 | 0.94× |
| StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $131 201 gems | 12.4% | 27 | 23.9 | 1.13× |
| StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 10.0% | $55.11 84.78 gems | 10.4% | 38 | 47.9 | 0.79× |
| Sticker | OpTic Gaming (Foil) | London 2018sticker · #d2d2d2 | 10.0% | $18.06 27.78 gems | 3.4% | 54 | 47.9 | 1.13× |
| MP9 | Hydra (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $8.11 12.48 gems | 2.3% | 66 | 71.8 | 0.92× |
| Negev | Power Loader (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 25.0% | $2.65 4.08 gems | 1.3% | 115 | 119.7 | 0.96× |
| Sticker | Mister Chiefsticker · Rare | 25.0% | $0.37 0.57 gems | 0.2% | 130 | 119.8 | 1.09× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restrictedeverythingroi$58.8290.49 gems$545839 gems9.27x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restrictedFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$58.8290.49 gems$545839 gems9.27x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restrictedefe$58.8290.49 gems$545839 gems9.27x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restrictedkalu$58.8290.49 gems$545839 gems9.27x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$58.8290.49 gems$545839 gems9.27x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$58.8290.49 gems$545839 gems9.27x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$58.8290.49 gems$545839 gems9.27x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $58.82 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 1.0%restricted 2.0%exotic 3.0%classified 29.0%covert 5.0%#d2d2d2 10.0%#8847ff 25.0%Rare 25.0%best hit $756 (12.85x)