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Clash Case

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$126.69
195 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $114.02 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.98%
680 openings, odds method
Variance
9.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 31
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
57 openings · below min
7 days
91.13%±25.45544 openings
30 days
90.98%±22.76680 openings
since tracking started
90.98%±22.76680 openings
-0.5%58.8%118.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h5738.66%±78.6—odds
7d54491.13%±25.4+0.1σodds
30d68090.98%±22.8+0.1σodds
All68090.98%±22.8+0.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 680 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband1 in 200$2,777 4,273 gems12.2%53.41.47×
★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 200$2,600 4,000 gems11.4%43.41.18×
AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 200$2,455 3,777 gems10.8%43.41.18×
★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 133$2,030 3,123 gems13.4%45.10.78×
★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 100$1,229 1,891 gems10.8%36.80.44×
AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 80$681 1,048 gems7.5%68.50.71×
Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 67$396 609 gems5.2%1410.21.37×
★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 40$196 302 gems4.3%1817.01.06×
AUG | Midnight Lily (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 33$142 219 gems3.7%2320.41.13×
★ Flip Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 20$126 193 gems5.5%3134.00.91×
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20$104 160 gems4.6%3434.01.00×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 20$92.22 142 gems4.0%3534.01.03×
AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 20$41.37 63.65 gems1.8%3234.00.94×
StatTrak™ P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert10.0%$23.89 36.75 gems2.1%8268.01.21×
AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New)weapon · industrial10.0%$12.01 18.48 gems1.1%6468.00.94×
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · Ancient10.0%$11.38 17.5 gems1.0%6668.00.97×
Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified18.5%$3.82 5.88 gems0.6%129125.81.03×
MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New)weapon · Mythical20.0%$0.63 0.97 gems0.1%126136.00.93×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband$127195 gems$2,7774,273 gems21.92x
M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband$127195 gems$2,7774,273 gems21.92x
M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband$127195 gems$2,7774,273 gems21.92x
M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband$127195 gems$2,7774,273 gems21.92x
M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband$127195 gems$2,7774,273 gems21.92x
★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$127195 gems$2,6004,000 gems20.52x
★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$127195 gems$2,6004,000 gems20.52x
★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$127195 gems$2,6004,000 gems20.52x
★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertkick.com/davnh $300 RACE$127195 gems$2,6004,000 gems20.52x
AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$127195 gems$2,4553,777 gems19.38x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$127195 gems$396609 gems3.12x
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · Ancient$127195 gems$11.3817.5 gems0.09x
MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$127195 gems$0.630.97 gems0.00x
Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$127195 gems$396609 gems3.12x
StatTrak™ P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$127195 gems$23.8936.75 gems0.19x
AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New)weapon · industrial$127195 gems$12.0118.48 gems0.09x
MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$127195 gems$0.630.97 gems0.00x
Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified$127195 gems$3.825.88 gems0.03x
MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New)weapon · MythicalKICK/JUSTSAN666$127195 gems$0.630.97 gems0.00x
StatTrak™ P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$127195 gems$23.8936.75 gems0.19x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$12790.00%18
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.5%covert 29.0%mil spec 1.5%sunny 2.5%restricted 3.0%classified 23.5%industrial 10.0%Ancient 10.0%Mythical 20.0%best hit $2,777 (21.92x)