Closed Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$77.24
119 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $69.51 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
219.55%
2,143 openings, odds method
Variance
511.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 1,000
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 2,143 openings and 2.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,199 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New)weapon | 1 in 1,000 | $55.3K 85,000 gems | 79.5% | 6 | 2.2 | 2.73× |
| ★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 250 | $951 1,463 gems | 5.5% | 11 | 8.8 | 1.25× |
| ★ Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $347 534 gems | 2.5% | 11 | 11.0 | 1.00× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 100 | $117 180 gems | 1.7% | 16 | 22.0 | 0.73× |
| Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Factory New)weapon · pink | 1 in 33 | $48.75 75 gems | 2.1% | 54 | 66.0 | 0.82× |
| MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $43.71 67.25 gems | 3.1% | 111 | 110.0 | 1.01× |
| Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $9.42 14.49 gems | 1.4% | 205 | 219.9 | 0.93× |
| Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet | 80.0% | $3.70 5.69 gems | 4.3% | 1,785 | 1759.2 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New)weaponHayzeusC$77.24119 gems$55.3K85,000 gems715.3x
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New)weaponCODE:666 750LB 300GW$77.24119 gems$55.3K85,000 gems715.3x
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New)weapon$77.24119 gems$55.3K85,000 gems715.3x
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New)weapon$77.24119 gems$55.3K85,000 gems715.3x
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New)weapon$77.24119 gems$55.3K85,000 gems715.3x
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New)weapon$77.24119 gems$55.3K85,000 gems715.3x
★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covertCODE:666 750LB 300GW$77.24119 gems$9511,463 gems12.31x
Latest dropsnewest first
Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetLive kick/vaultycs$77.24119 gems$3.705.69 gems0.05x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $77.24 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 0.1%covert 0.9%sunny 1.0%pink 3.0%restricted 15.0%violet 80.0%best hit $55.3K (715.3x)