Clutch Case
A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.71
5.7 gems
Advertised RTP
89.86%
EV $3.33 from 41 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.05%
22.9K openings, odds method
Variance
958.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 3,333
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryeSk;$3.715.7 gems$2,9194,491 gems787.8x
Latest dropsnewest first
Five-SeveN | Flame Test (Factory New)weapon · milspecBoogy95 #clashgg$3.715.7 gems$0.120.19 gems0.03x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.86%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $3.71 | 89.86% | 41 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.2%legendary 0.1%Extraordinary 0.0%covert 0.6%classified 2.1%Legendary 1.1%restricted 12.8%Mythical 3.2%mil spec 34.3%Rare 22.8%milspec 11.4%blue 11.4%best hit $9,581 (2,586x)